RESURGENT INDIA KNOWLEDGE SERIES PRESENTS
Webinar On “Impact on Urban Infrastructure”
Speaker- Mr. Sudheendra Bajpai, Associate Director- Ecorys India
Speaker- Mr. Umang Jain, Sr Manager, Ecorys
Moderated By- Mr. Sagar Gangwal, AVP-Resurgent India Limited
Premise
⇒ Impact of Epidemic on the India Economy
⇒ Impact on Urban Infrastructure
⇒ Suggestion on way forward
Key Takeaways
GDP
⇒ COVID-19 has had a colossal impact on the USD 3Tn economy, and it’s the only bright spot currently amongst the other economies of the world. It is stated to have a negative GDP growth rate worldwide, except India.
⇒ Several reports from RBI, Goldman Sachs, and IMF have subsequently projected India’s GDP growth rate in the range of 1.5%-2% post-COVID-19 in contrast to an earlier rate of 5.8%-6%.
⇒ If translated in numbers, this lockdown will result in a loss of approximately USD 120 Bn.
Sectors
⇒ 38 million jobs may be at risk in the tourism and hospitality sector & estimated loss of USD 8.8 billion in aviation. Overall, there may be a loss of 136 million jobs in India resulting in fears of the high unemployment rate, poverty, and hunger.
⇒ Indian Railways will also be disrupted over a loss of USD 1.9 billion over a three month period.
⇒ The IMF and World bank have already hinted at the possibility of a recession of the magnitude closer to that of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Physical Infra (Mass Transit and IPT)
⇒ Cumulative ridership of around 20.6 million passengers will be impacted garnering a humongous loss of revenue of Rs 156 Cr. It includes loss in revenue from daily commute through metro systems(daily loss of INR 12 cr), which has a presence in 12 cities across the country, Mumbai Suburban Railway (daily loss of INR 4.75 Cr), 8 metropolitan SRTUs (daily loss of INR 35 Cr), and Buses (daily loss of INR 140 Cr).
⇒ Intermediate public transport ( cabs, rickshaws, e-rickshaws, etc) trips account for approximately 25-30% of mass transit trips. So, there is a subsequent loss in revenue of IPT services because of loss in mass transit.
Road usage
⇒ Nearly 20 crores of vehicles are off the roads. Reduction in petrol and diesel imports.
⇒ The decrease in road fatalities, air pollution, water pollution.
Social Infra(Telecom and Internet Usage)
⇒ The surge in the usage of data and the internet. It has increased by 2 folds from approx. 4 GB/month to 8GB/month
⇒ Physical meetings have been replaced by virtual meetings ( Skype and Zoom calls)
⇒ Extensive use of online banking, although digital payment has taken a back seat.
E-commerce
⇒ E-commerce is flourishing, although only delivering essential items is granted. Increase in the doorstep deliveries.
Way forward for Urban Transport
⇒ The fundamental principle of frame correct policy, devise a correct plan, develop the right project, and formulate correct implementation. Although this fundamental principle is being followed in our country, it will need further additional strengthening to translate them into on-ground reality in a short time and specific manner.
⇒ Short term measures include adopting innovative solutions for the smooth functioning of services and better utilization of assets. It may result in segregating activities in different zones of city -zonal as well as temporal.
⇒ Educational institutions-start and end early
⇒ Offices-may have to follow distributed timings over mass transit routes and in zones
⇒ Shops- day-wise operation allocation may have to be enforced
⇒ Malls, theatres- looks difficult in the near future
⇒ Wholesale markets-extended working hours with limited entries in batches
⇒ IT,ITES,BPO,KPO & similar industries-to encourage WFH
⇒ Adoption of odd-even policy to reduce vehicular traffic
Long term measures
⇒ Revisit and implement the delivery mechanism in the National Urban Transport policy
⇒ Integration between land use and transport is the key to control transport demand and supply
⇒ Focus on Transit-oriented development, which envisages housing multi-activity (businesses, leisure and rest) zones to limit the movement and reduce long-distance travelling.
⇒ The public sector should appropriate data acquisition and analysis through voluntary surveys by passengers detailing their baseline trip. and statistics.
⇒ Improve IT enabled systems in modes where IT infrastructure is below average.
⇒ Intelligent Transport system- Effective for real-time traffic management
⇒ National Transport Data Bank should be established
⇒ Personal information on the public domain should be linked. This will be helpful in two aspects, one is planning of transportation systems, traffic management, and circulation and the other, traffic enforcement. Chances of forged documents will reduce drastically if the database is interlinked and available on a digital platform.
⇒ Banks have already been doing data acquisition and analysis, with systems like CIBIL, which facilitate information about borrowers' history on defaults.
⇒ Aadhaar is already an up and running ecosystem. Linking Aadhaar with any other system will give breakthrough results. For e.g linking Aadhar and Aarogya Setu database can help in the effective management of containment zones.
⇒ UMTA-Apex authority at the city level. All matters related to urban and transport planning will be handled by this authority. This will create a single-window clearance system and reduce the wastage of time in trying to get 23 different approvals from different authorities. It should also be provided financial powers for smooth functioning
Overall Perspective
⇒ New paradigms will have to be created to address newer challenges that are born.
⇒ Focus on ‘urban transport’ from a wide range of aspects.
⇒ Planning and policy will have to have elements keeping the future in mind.
⇒ Mass Customization will have to be adopted.
⇒ Technology will play a significant role- data capture, storage, and analytics will lead ‘demand-supply’ assessment
⇒ Personal information will be redefined. Capturing personal information for planning purposes will have to be commissioned and accordingly, regulations will have to be in place.
⇒ Due to limited public sector capacity, an increase in the engagement of the private sector across the cycle can improve the efficiency of services.
⇒ The government should focus on innovative styles of generating revenues and not depend on farebox revenue to curtail losses because social distancing norms are here to stay. Like Bangalore urban transport authority is developing commercial complexes at their permanent bus stations. If other cities also follow this model, even if operations are stopped the cash flow is not completely nil. Authorities may need to come up with alternative sources for revenue for sustenance.
⇒ Training needs assessments and ensuring the training of personnel should be agendize by the authorities in urban transport and planning.
►Watch the webinar here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzzUGqNQPX0
